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Posted by 704set on December 22, 2007, 7:25 am
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> Happy Holidays Friends,
>
> About one year ago from today, on Tuesday, December 19th, 2006, I
> created a test portfolio compromised of 10 stocks from different
> sectors. Based on my analysis, which I'll share with you later on,
> these 10 stocks were very under-valued. I bought a total of ~$10,000
> of each of the 10 different stocks for a total of about $100,000.
>
> I did a multi-variage analysis on 2200 or so stocks, and based on my
> regression analysis, I selected about 50 under-valued stocks. I then
> checked my 50 stocks with what analysts had to say about it. The 10
> stocks that I chose from my initial screen of 50 stocks all had
> favorable ratings by analysts.
>
> However, and this is a very humbling experience, my portfolio severely
> under-performed the S&P 500. Two of the 10 different stocks have
> actually become 'Not Active', probably due to being bought out or
> delisted.
>
> When you eliminate the 2 stocks that have become inactive, my initial
> purchase for this "Model Portfolio" is about $80,000. Today, these 8
> stocks are only valued at about $65,300.
>
> The actual values are (included dividends, stock splits, etc.):
> Initial value: $79,906.80
> Current value: $65,284.57
>
> This represents a -18.3% decrease in value, and the S&P 500 increased
> by 2.4% (not including reinvested dividends).
>
>
>
>
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
> Date: 19 Dec 2006 12:46:00 -0800
> Subject: Test portfolio
>
> Here are 10 stocks that I'm going to start tracking. My initial
> investment was $99,901.79 on Tuesday, December 19th. Today, the S&P
> 500 is 1426.11.
>
>
> My basis for selecting these 10 stocks are the following:
> 1. I did my models, and these stocks are quite under-valued using my
> statistical criterias.
> 2. I cross-checked with what analysts on finance.yahoo.com had to
> say.
>
>
> Symbol Cost Basis Shares Bought Value of Shares
> ACTS 8.57 1166 $9,992.62
> BONT 35.18 284 $9,991.12
> GNCMA 15.72 636 $9,997.92
> HOFF 17.11 584 $9,992.24
> PETD 43.4 230 $9,982.00
> PHH 28.78 347 $9,986.66
> PLSB 23.73 421 $9,990.33
> RSCR 18.9 529 $9,998.10
> WIRE 22 454 $9,988.00
> WLSC 18.8 531 $9,982.80
>
>
> TOTAL: $99,901.79
>
>
> Only time will tell if my method will outperform the S&P 500 or not.
> Let's check periodically.
One of the problems with undervalued stocks is they become more undervalued.
704set
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